Egypt Considers Military Role to Support Saudi Arabia: What Pushes Cairo to Confront Houthi Threats?

Egypt is moving towards discussing a potential military role to support Saudi Arabia in confronting Houthi attacks, in a notable shift in Cairo's stance on the conflict, amid growing security and economic pressures, according to a Reuters analysis.

The Egyptian parliament is expected to vote next week on authorizing the armed forces to help defend Saudi Arabia if Riyadh requests it, according to the article.

This step would bring Egypt closer to direct military involvement in the escalating conflicts sparked by the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in February.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi requested approval for this in a speech on Saturday, saying that Egypt "will never, ever forget our brothers in the Gulf," and assuring Saudi leaders that Cairo would take "any measure to protect and defend you."

Similar to the Gulf states that have been attacked by Tehran in the Iranian war, Egypt is a long-standing partner in the U.S.-led security system, which is facing a tough test from this conflict.

What is Egypt's position on the Iranian war?

Sisi's remarks marked a clear escalation from the more moderate tone authorities have consistently adopted since the start of the Iranian war. Although Egypt has repeatedly expressed strong support for its Gulf allies, Cairo has not gone as far as to publicly commit to a direct combat role in the conflict.

Official Emirati media revealed the presence of Egyptian Rafale fighter jets in the UAE during their coverage of Sisi's official visit in May to the Gulf state. Egyptian coverage of the visit did not mention the deployment of these aircraft. Egypt did not join a joint defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia with Turkey and Pakistan in August, but it announced that it was studying the matter.

The tone of the rhetoric began to change after the Houthis escalated their attacks on Saudi oil facilities and other infrastructure. Last month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Egypt, where he discussed the need to ensure the freedom and security of navigation in the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Red Sea, on which both countries have long coastlines.

What is at stake for Egypt?

Egypt's economic stability has always been linked to the oil-producing Gulf states. Remittances from Egyptian expatriate workers there are an important source of foreign currency and income for Egyptian families, at a time when the inflation rate exceeds ten percent, exacerbated by rising food and fuel prices.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries have been among Sisi's main financial backers, providing tens of billions of dollars in aid, central bank deposits, and investments since the army overthrew President Mohamed Morsi, a senior leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, in 2013.

Sisi said in his speech, "We will never, ever forget this (standing by Egypt during that period) from our brothers in the Gulf."

Data shows that Saudi Arabia has a $5.3 billion deposit with the Central Bank of Egypt that matures this month, in addition to $267 million in interest.

What about security?

Analysts say growing security concerns have also pushed Cairo to take a more active stance. A drone attack on two gas tankers in the Mediterranean port city of Damietta in July confirmed that Egypt cannot expect to remain completely isolated from the conflict.

H.A. Hellyer, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank, said, "I think they realize they can't stay on the sidelines on this forever."

He added that for the authorities, economic and security concerns are "one and the same thing."

Saudi Arabia and Egypt also have a common interest in securing navigation through the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia's oil outlet after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Egypt earns billions of dollars annually from tolls on traffic in the Suez Canal. Sherif Aref, an Egyptian political researcher and journalist, said that these overlapping concerns mean that "Saudi Arabia's security is a dimension of Egypt's national security."

What kind of military force is Egypt contributing?

Egypt has one of the largest armies in the Arab world, and military analysts say it includes hundreds of thousands of active-duty personnel and large stockpiles of air, land, and naval equipment. Egypt imports its equipment from a range of countries, and its air force operates American F-16s, French Rafales, and Russian MiG-29s.

Egypt receives about $1.3 billion annually in U.S. military aid, which helps finance its purchases of American military equipment. Washington waived human rights conditions on a portion of these funds this year after what it described as the "helpful role" Cairo has played since the start of the war with Iran.

In the years following the 2011 uprising that overthrew President Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian armed forces waged a counter-insurgency campaign against Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula. Externally, Egypt contributed air and naval forces to the Saudi-led coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015, and launched airstrikes on Islamic State targets in Libya during that country's civil war.

Egypt has not undertaken any large-scale external ground deployment since the 1991 Gulf War, when its forces joined the U.S.-led coalition to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Nearly three decades earlier, President Gamal Abdel Nasser had sent Egyptian troops to Yemen in a costly intervention that was later likened to the United States' involvement in the Vietnam War.

What kind of support is possible?

Sisi's speech and subsequent statements did not specify what kind of military forces Egypt intends to eventually send, if any. Military analysts say the deployment of Egyptian troops inside Yemen itself is unlikely.

Samir Ragheb, a retired Egyptian military officer who heads the Arab Foundation for Development and Strategic Studies, said the most likely intervention could include air defense and naval support.

"Threats, such as missiles and drones, require air defense and air forces," he added, noting that the navy could be used to protect ships, conduct anti-piracy naval operations, and protect the Saudi coast.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer in security studies at King's College London, said the entry of another large, conventional Arab army would not "suddenly solve the Houthi problem."

"The Houthis are particularly difficult to deal with because they achieve a disproportionate impact through missiles, drones, deployed forces, and geography," he added.

"What Cairo can do is strengthen Saudi Arabia's resilience, improve control of the Red Sea, share the burden of defense, and increase the political cost of continued attacks," he continued.